Assessment of Waste-to-Value Potential in Municipal Solid Waste: Composition-Based Recycling, Composting, and Energy Recovery Analysis

Abstract

The potential of municipal solid waste (MSW) as a recoverable stream of resources is on the rise in preference to being a disposal burden, but combined evaluations combining recycling, composting, and energy recovery potential are limited. This study evaluates the waste-to-value potential of MSW using a composition-based analytical framework applied to 77 regional composition profiles spanning 1999–2022. Material fractions were harmonized into major categories and normalized to ensure consistency. The recyclable fraction (paper, plastics, glass, and metals) and compostable fraction (food, yard waste, and other organics) were combined to estimate total diversion potential, while energy recovery potential was calculated using a weighted lower heating value approach for profiles with sufficient combustible-fraction detail (n = 57). A composite Waste-to-Value (WTV) Index was developed to integrate diversion efficiency and normalized energy performance. The results indicate a mean total diversion potential of 81.04%, with a residual fraction of 18.96%. Paper (25.65%), food waste (15.23%), and plastics (14.56%) were the dominant components of the waste stream. Mean energy recovery potential averaged 10.80 MJ/kg (SD 1.54), with several regions combining high diversion rates and elevated calorific values. Regional variability was more pronounced than temporal change across the study period. The composition-based indicators reveal substantial theoretical recovery capacity within MSW streams and highlight the importance of integrated strategies that combine recycling, composting, and energy recovery to support sustainable waste management transitions.